Churchill Downs – Kentucky Derby Day Selections

Race 6: The G1 Humana Distaff (Post Time: 1:13 ET) Exiting a game win at Keeneland in the G1 Madison, #1 Finley’sluckycharm seems to have returned to her previous form. Her record at Churchill (and in general) is quite stellar, where she has a perfect record from 6 races. In her most two recent races, she has learned to sit just off the leaders and that sort of running style should fit this race perfectly. #5 Lewis Bay was narrowly defeated in the Madison, where she cut back in distance for the first time in several starts and should get a better trip than she did at Keeneland. #3 Ivy Bell looks to offer some value for underneath in exotic tickets. Since transferring to the barn of Todd Pletcher, she has had one start in which she won a G2 at Gulfstream Park. Her running style suggests she’ll be coming from the back of the pack. She has a solid record over the surface at Churchill, but because she is getting a big class test in here.

Race 7: The G2 Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Post Time: 1:55 ET) Making only her second start in 2018, the lightly race #3 Dream Awhile is coming out of a G3 race almost three months ago down at Gulfstream where she was beaten by a neck. She will be cutting back a bit in distance and I don’t think we’ve seen the best from her. #11 La Colonel has been racing against some very talented fillies and mares, but as we saw in the Jenny Wiley she sometimes lacks a late kick in the lane. The mile should suit her better and with her class, it’s no surprise she’s 3-1 morning line. #9 On Leave is a runner who figures to offer value at the window and looms a big chance in here. She typically rates behind the leaders, but even when she has found herself farther back than preferred, she has made up the ground. She should step up in here, as she’ll be making her second start since December. For the Ian Wilkes barn, #7 Res Ipsa is worth a shot in the bottom of exotic wagers. She’ll be getting a huge class test in here, but she exits the same race as #9 On Leave. She rallied from the back of the pack and overcame a wide trip to only miss the winner’s circle by a nose.

Race 8: The G2 Churchill Downs (Post Time: 2:45 ET) It seems #3 Imperial Hint will be trying to play a game of catch me if you can in this race, as he runs out of his skin, posting blistering times in essentially every start. This son of Imperialism has really started to shine since the start of his four-year-old campaign and as a five-year-old, the possibilities are endless. He’s coming out of an easy win at Tampa Bay Downs that served as a nice prep. Sweeping all four of Churchill Downs’ sprint races for older horses in 2017, #7 Limousine Liberal looks set to defend his title with J. Ortiz back in the saddle. In the G3 Commonwealth at Keeneland, he was coming off the shelf for the first time in over four months and dug in to get the place honors. Colebrook used the previous edition of that race to serve as a prep race for this one and it proved to be quite successful. #10 Awesome Slew has faced some of the best sprinters in the country: Sharp Azteca, Mind Your Biscuits to just name a few. In the G1 Carter Handicap, he had a strong late kick but couldn’t get to Army Mule. As expected in a sprint race, there will be plenty of pace for him to run at and with one of the best jockeys in the country, he’s a must play.

Race 9: The G2 American Turf (Post Time: 3:37 ET) Chris Block has brought along nicely #9 Captivating Moon who recently finished second to Analyze It, who is easily one of the best three-year-old turf males in the country. He had some trouble in the last and had to rally from the clouds, but with a repeat effort like that, he is definitely alive in this race. The very talented Aidan O’Brien sends out #3 Threeandfourpence in here, who recently failed to fire in the G2 UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai. Before that, he finished second to Mendelssohn in Ireland, who will run for the roses later in the card. Shipping in from overseas is always a bit of a concern, but it’s hard to ignore his performances on paper. After a lackluster performance on the dirt, #11 Untamed Domain has found himself back on his preferred surface. He had some minor trip issues in the G3 Dania Beach down at Gulfstream and with a better trip today, he could prove to be a serious threat.

Race 10: The G3 Pat Day Mile (Post Time: 4:28 ET) West coast runner #12 Restoring Hope followed up his maiden victory with a huge third place finish the in G2 Wood Memorial behind two Derby runners, Vino Rosso and Enticed. Baffert has decided to throw the blinkers back on in here and after stepping up in a big way last time, the addition can only aid him. Trying graded stakes company for the first time, #8 Mask has had two easy wins, the most recent in a stakes race down at Gulfstream. He hasn’t’ faced as competitive of rivals as other runners in here, but the ease of his wins suggests we maybe haven’t seen all that he has to offer. #11 Sporting Chance rates a look for the exotics, as he has an immense amount of talent, but finds himself acting green on the bigger stages such as Keeneland and Saratoga. Seems the one turn mile should be to his liking and his works suggest Lukas has him ready to crank out a big race.

Race 11: The G1 Turf Classic (Post Time: 5:25 ET) The five-year-old son of Tapit #7 Synchrony has really blossomed in the last year, winning two graded stakes races in his only two starts of 2018. Joe Bravo retains the mount and the pair gets along beautifully. The versatility of this horse to either rate or come from the back of the pack make him a contender for the top honors. The race record of #10 Beach Patrol says it all: reliable and always ready to run. Arguably, he has faced tougher competition than a majority of the field, facing G1 competition in eight consecutive starts. He has had a bit of time off, but in the past, it hasn’t seemed to be an issue. He’ll be looking for redemption, as he gave up the win honors in the 2017 edition of this race to Divisidero. Chad Brown sends out the Chilean #3 Kurilov (CHI) who made his first US turf start in the G1 GP Turf in February which resulted in a second place finish to Heart To Heart, who has since returned to win yet again. He posted nice speed figures in that race and could improve off that most reason performance. The lethal combination of Ryan Moore and Aidan Moore clearly make the talented runner #1 Deauville (IRE) a must use on wagers. Shipping from overseas seems to be no issue for him and the quality of horses he has faced in both North America and overseas is quite competitive. He’s expected to be just off the leaders and hopefully he has enough to hang on if he gets the lead in the stretch.

Race 12: The 144th Running of the G1 KY Derby (Post Time: 6:50 ET) Todd Pletcher sends out several runners in here, but #5 Audible and #18 Vino Rosso may be the most likely to earn the garland of roses. Audible is entering this race off a four-race win streak, which is no easy task let alone against this caliber. He handled the mile and one eighth distance in the Florida Derby quite nicely, closing from the back to take command and he never looked back. John Velazquez opted to ride Vino Rosso if that’s any indication of who he thinks is more likely to win and I’d trust him after the 2017 KY Derby with Always Dreaming. It seems that Pletcher has finally figured out this son of Curlin who ran his best race recently in the G2 Wood Memorial and survived an inquiry to take the top spot. The work he recorded over the surface last week was stellar, so all signs point in the right direction. #14 Mendelssohn, winner of the G1 BC Juvenile Turf most recently made his debut over the dirt in the G2 UAE Derby in which he showed that he fancied the surface, crushing the field by a whopping 18.5 lengths. Not sure he faced quite this level but nonetheless, he’s remarkably talented and he’s made quite a buzz. The hype has also been around #7 Justify, winner of the G1 Santa Anita Derby. He’s undefeated, but in his first two races he didn’t really face anybody. He posted some quick fractions, but the races were shorter in distance. He could be a monster, but hard to endorse for the top spot when he hasn’t faced quality runners in two of his three starts.

Fort Erie Selections 8-30-16

Hello all! After looking at the final “Twilight Tuesday” card for Fort Erie, I’ve handicapped the late pick 3. Best of luck to all and for those north of the border attending the races, enjoy the weather!

Race #6: 3-2-1

While this race is definitely lacking quantity, it is not lacking quality. This race came up very competitive and it was hard to pick out one horse for the top spot.

#3 Coltimus Prime: I selected him on top in this race, as he simply ran lights out over the dirt here when he won the 2014 Prince of Wales Stakes. After, he had a rough 2015 campaign, off the board in all of his starts for Clement and furthermore, for the entire season. After spending months in Florida for some R&R, he showed in his 2016 debut (just this month) that he’s ready to run. The company he faced was strong and he showed his grit in the stretch, finishing third. His work over the training track at Woodbine on August 21st shows he has held his form. I really expect a big run out of him today.

#2 Ultimate Destiny: This seven year old is a winner of over $750,000 and has pocketed just over $100,000 in his two races at Fort Erie. He’s proven over this track and he exhibits a ton of back class. His early foot looms a serious threat, as he could just take the lead out of the gate and wave goodbye to the rest of the field if things go his way. He’s very dangerous here and is a must use on your tickets.

#1 Boreal Spirit: The morning line favorite is coming off a win over the turf course here at Fort Erie against allowance company. For me, I cannot endorse him on top. Other runners in here exhibit more back-class and while he’s proven himself over the dirt at NP, I just would like to take a sit back and watch approach with him here, especially after seeing him as the 7-5 ML favorite.

Race #7: 2-1-3

#2 Tale of Class: In her last start, she outran her stablemate as she returned to the dirt. She closed from last over the sloppy track and at one point, she was 18 lengths behind the leaders. I really liked what I saw there and I think she’s a classy filly. The connections obviously had high hopes for her last year and after a year off, she’s been improving. Back to backs win are tough and even with a strong field here, I think she can do it today.

#1 Impossible Tale: Another runner from the Neubauer barn, this filly has been a perfect 2-2. She won her debut at Finger Lakes over the dirt, then won an allowance over the turf here at Fort Erie. She exhibits some early foot which could help her if she can track right behind the leaders. She hasn’t showed signs of stopping at 5 furlongs, but the stretchout she faces here to a mile and sixteenth could be a bit much for her in only her third start.

#3 Joint Account: I had a tough time deciding between this runner and #6 Gleaming Sunrise for this spot. I went with Joint Account because she has proven that she can stretch out and win at a mile, while #6 finds herself losing ground at this distance. My biggest concern with Joint Account is her dirt form has been less than desirable. Maybe the barn has figured her out.So, at 5-1 ML I figured she was worth the play as she certainly will offer value.

Race #8: 3-6-2

#3 Araz: In his last two races at Fort Erie, he won against 5k and on the jump up to this level, he finished second over the slop. I expect a top two finish from him here, as he’s shown he can track the leaders and close well, even with a half up in :50 2.

#6 Classy Kid: He’s had one start over the dirt here and it was certainly a lackluster performance. After that, he found himself back at Woodbine where he finished 5th, beaten by three and three-quarter lengths. I personally cannot select him for the top spot as he lost a lot of ground in his only start here. I like that he’s dropping and facing easier competition today so I will toss him in the exotics.

#2 Moonduster: He is my price play here. The way he closed in his last race here, the same race that #3 Araz is exiting was a big positive for me as he showed some run in the stretch. He’s definitely what I call “a horse for the course,” winning twice and finishing third five times from his 7 starts here. He hasn’t finished off the board at Fort Erie and he may just be the type of horse that gets rolling later in the season. Just scanning the PP’s, it’s not difficult to notice that these horses are constantly racing against one another. Some horses fire early on in the season and others start to peak later. My dad and I have been noticing this for years and definitely think it is something to watch for. This runner will offer a price at the windows and I definitely can see him firing today.

Have a great day and may you have many winners!

Late Pick 4

I decided to play the late pick 4 and here is my ticket below:

Race 5: 2,4,5

Race 6:2,3,6

Race 7:4

Race 8:5,6,7

Best of luck!

8-28 Fort Erie Selections

Hey everyone! After the FE card for Sunday came up a bit slim on the number of entries and after a busy past two days, I will not have full selections up. Instead, I will try to post my late pick 4 ticket with a short write up. Best of luck at the windows!

-Ash

8-23-16 Fort Erie Selections

Hey everyone! I’m super excited about Fort Erie’s card for Tuesday, August 23rd. While there are only two scheduled turf races (which is a bit less than the normal for this season), there are three $30,000 cup races on the card. These races are restricted to horse who have raced at least 2 times at Fort Erie in 2016. Race 5 is the Molson Cup, which is scheduled to be run over the turf going about one mile and a sixteenth. This race is for fillies and mares and a maximum of ten runners will compete. Race is the Andy Passero Memorial Cup, which is for fillies and mares 3 and up. The distance is six and one half furlongs over the dirt. The nightcap is the final cup race on the card. The Bob Summers Memorial is for three year olds and up and will be contested at six and one half furlongs over the dirt. Best of luck at the windows!

Race 1: 6-5-3-2

#6 Niobe Cruiser: I had a tough time picking a horse for the top spot in the opener as I found the race to be extremely competitive. I landed on this runner from the Darwin Banach barn. This will be his fifth start of the season and his first ever over the dirt. While I’m typically skeptical of horses making their first start at Fort Erie, it’s hard to ignore a barn who is shipping in and essentially firing every single time. He has one published dirt work which is solid enough for me given that there was some moisture in the track. I like the speed this horse possesses and think that the race may set up in his favor.

#5 Mr Changue: While he showed up empty in his most recent start on July 31st, he will return to the races this Tuesday in hopes of returning to his dirt form. He raced on July 3rd over the dirt against $10,000 claimers and finished second to Dancing Rico (beaten by 4 1/2). For him, it seems like his battle is holding on at the end and for this reason, I will use him underneath.

#3 Blonde Gator: This three year old son of Mobil will be making his third start at Fort Erie and so far, he’s seem to handle the course well (2 starts, 1-1-0). He last raced on Prince of Wales Day and was second best that day, beaten by three lengths. I have a feeling the connections believe that he is better suited for the dirt and have been pointing him to this race.

#2 Metier: After crushing his competition by 10 and 1/4 lengths in his maiden victory, his new connections decided to race him over the turf where he was 4th, beaten by just under three lengths. I think he will offer the most value in here and I think he is worthy of the bottom of the exotics.

Race 2:

I will tread lightly here. The #1 Are You Ok will take a lot of money here, dropping in from Woodbine and down in class. The #5 A Little Love Song lacks the power to hold and fades about every single start. With her record at Fort Erie (6 starts, 0-3-2) she has to be used in the exotics. In a weak field such as this, I’d give a look to the first time starter #2 Golden Iris. Her most recent work was her best and shows something strong enough for a minor piece.

Race 3: 3-6-7

Scratched #3 Blisk: I still cannot figure out what happened to this runner in his last start. On paper, it appeared as though he should make the trifecta and instead he finished in the back of the pack. Part of the issue could have been the post position so I will give him another shot in this spot. The winner of his most recent start came back to fire again. Apprentice Aimee Auger retains the mount and hopefully he bounces back here.

#6 Pugnacity: He ran one of the best races of his life last time out and he could be starting to come around. He broke his maiden over this course and most recently, he was a late closer, managing to take the bottom of the trifecta. I have to use him here in the exotics off of his most recent race. My biggest concern is that there will not be enough pace for him to run at.

#7 Marching Minister: He will be trying the dirt for the first time and is dropping down significantly in class. He exhibited early foot in his maiden victory which makes him a must play here. There is a lack of pace here and with a clean break, he may be able to gun to the front without too much competition.

Race 4:

I see this as a two horse race between #6 Marsala and #1 Leave B. As far as the exotics are concerned, I’d toss in #7 Just Let Loose who is in the money at the Fort about 55% of the time.

Race 5: 8-2-9-7

#8 Queenstown: This seven year old mare has been hard to ignore all season at Fort Erie. She has an intense late charge that has kept her in the money in all three starts over this turf course. I believe she’s starting to come around and may beat her rival, #9 English Holiday. These two mares have been taking on the boys together this season. There is a bit of pace in here that should help her running style.

#2 Starship Gambler: She has made two starts at Fort Erie in 2016 and both have resulted in second place finishes. I like that she finds herself just behind the leader(s) and usually gets into a comfortable position. While she finds herself testing deeper waters in this spot, she has ran well against some of these horses, finishing second to #8 Queenstown and beating #3 Primordia.

#9 English Holiday: It’s hard to ignore this veteran daughter of English Channel, who has raced against some of the strongest horses at Fort Erie this season. She won a $10,000 allowance over the turf and here, she finds herself racing against fillies and mare. She held her own most recently against the boys and I find her to be a must use in the exotics.

#7  Runaway Brenda: This will be my long shot play for this race. I’m not sure we will get 10-1, but she should offer some value as she’s stepping up in class. Her most recent race resulted in a third place finish where she was closing late. I like her running style and I really think she can improve.

Race 6: 

The Andy Passero Memorial Cup has attracted a nice group of filly and mare sprinters. It features two talented mares, #2 Call Her Karma and #3 Sandys Hurricaine. In her most recent race, #2 Call Her Karma posted a high beyer number (80) where she drew off to win by 7 and 1/2 lengths. The runner up in that race, Madcap Duchess beat #3 Sandys Hurricane which was her only loss at Fort Erie this season. I’m going to give a slight edge to #3 Sandys Hurriciane, as she has beat the boys twice this season. Her numbers are stellar and she seems to always have a full tank of gas. Finishing second to her twice this season, #6 Two Brews To Go hopes to win this race to not only beat #3 Sandys Hurricane this year, but to defend her title in this race. While the pace appears to be hot enough, I’m just not confident that this is the best spot for her to get it done.

Race 7: 3-8-5

#3 Winstanley: This Irish bred gelding has had quite the season over the lawn finishing in the money  in each of his starts. He finished second to Handsome Cowboy, who I consider to be one of the best grass horses at Fort Erie. I think he may be able to beat his rival #8 Escape Shaft if he can set steady fractions. Must use.

#8 Escape Shaft: He’s been bouncing between here and Woodbine this season. Most recently he won over the dirt and beat #5 Salvation Show. He tracked the leaders and took the lead, drawing away. He has one turf race at Fort Erie in which he finished second, beaten by #6 Acting The Part. I like his tracking style and expect him to run well.

#5 Salvation Show: Katerina Vassilieva has decided to run this gelding by Arch over the turf to see how he handles it. When he was down at Turfway he took a liking for the synthetic, finishing third before breaking his maiden over it which suggests may like the turf. Most recently, he finished third after taking two months off. There are no turf works to note, but I believe he is a bit better than some of the runners he will be facing Tuesday.

Race 8: 10-7-6-2

#10 Philm Noir: I struggled to narrow down my selections and am going with a bit of a price horse here. Philm Noir has had quite the season at Fort Erie, beaten by a nose and then crushing the field to win by 14 lengths (83 beyer). That race is arguably the best that any entrant has run this season. I don’t mind him shortening up in this spot and he could very well log another brilliant race.

#7 Creative Thunder: This son of Tapit has ran well over the turf and returns to the dirt after finishing second in both of his turf starts. Up at Woodbine in July, he finished second to #2 Gentleman Jackson who has been running well here this season. This year, he has posted a win and four seconds from six starts, missing the board once while finishing fourth. He has had one start over the dirt, which was in 2015 at Fort Erie which resulted in him crushing the competition by almost nine lengths in an optional claimer over the off going.

#6 Devoted Wildcat: While this may be only his third start for 2016, he has posted a win already and it appears that he starts to run his best races as he continues throughout the season. In 2015 he won three races at Fort Erie and was second in this cup race last year. His adaptable running style will certainly help his chances here as Bradley Wilson can decide whether or not to be on the front end.

#2 Gentleman Jackson: He posted a nice win here at Fort Erie this season beating #4 Masquerade Party, but most recently he failed to respond and was beat by both #6 Devoted Wildcat and #3 Tom Joy. He exhibits a ton of back class and maybe just had an off day on July 24th.

 

8-16-16 Fort Erie Selections

A bit later than I would have hoped to post this, but here are my selections for tomorrow’s eight race card at Fort Erie. There are four turf races on the card, two of which are co-feature races. Best of luck at the windows!

Race #1: 2-6-5

#2 Good Deed Indeed: This runner from the Nick Gonzalez barn is hard to ignore in this spot. She finds herself dropping once again.She’ll be trying the turf for the first time which I think will suit her well. I like her most recent race off the big drop so I can only see her improving here.

#6 Malenkaya: I’ve been following this filly since she stretched out in distance and while she’s hit the board in those two efforts, she’s been far behind the winners in both. I hope her form improves over the lawn and with the Simms barn being red hot this meet, I’m going to give her a shot.

#5 Wigglewhenyouwalk: Her last race can be tossed; she clearly did not like the dirt. If you go back to her race before that over the synthetic at Woodbine, she ran her best race so far. She finished midpack, but not that far back. I expect her to improve running on the turf and will use her underneath in the exotics.

Race #2:

With a very short field here and in my opinion a lack of value, I will move onto race 3. I believe race 2 is a two horse race between #3 Marsala and #1 Fiction.

Race #3: 5-2-7-3

I obviously had a tough time picking my selections for this race. While there are only 7 runners, I honestly would not be shocked if any one of these horses won.

#5 Mysilverdollar: I’ve been following this three year old filly by General Quarters since she first debuted at Fort Erie and I’ve been very impressed. Three solid races, two of which were over the turf and the other over the dirt. She gets one of the top pilots here and while she just broke her maiden, some of her competitors have as well and they were in cheaper. She will likely face a bit of a contested battle on the front end, but I think she can manage.

#2 Princess Salimah: Another horse racing just off the maiden win, this filly was able to rate just behind the leaders to surge late and draw off. Her jockey appears to have taken a different mount here, which is always a bit of a concern but I think she is a great play for the exotics. So far she’s five for five in the money, so she’s logical here.

#7 Ufeelthiscornelius: This horse last race over 5 weeks ago at FE and finished second beaten by a length. Her figures are some of the best in the field so she’s hard to ignore, but on the win end I simply cannot endorse her. She has one win from 28 starts so I must pass.

#3 Ay Ay Ay: In the past few weeks, this mare has found herself in a new barn and will be debuting for Sharon Ceccato. Not really sure how this horse will run, as he has thrown in some clunkers down at Mountaineer and Presque Isle. The one thing that I did find interesting was her most recent turf race at Mountaineer. She had a nice third place finish in against 14-15k claimers. Would be worth a shot here, but will watch the tote to see if she is a price.

Race #4: 2-6-8

#2 Diddums: Tuesday may just be this filly’s lucky day. She’s raced against some tougher horses than she will face here and she’s managed to hit the bottom of the exotics. I like to see that Auger is back in the tack and I believe this field is much weaker than anything she has faced. Top selection.

#6 Vexatious Vixen: She’s transferred to the Gonzalez barn in the last two weeks and will be trying to the dirt for her first time. Her most recent work over the training track up at Woodbine shows some promise and with a trainer that is 34% with first start in the barn, she’s a must use here.

#8 Seriously Vibank: She will be making her second career start Tuesday after having some downtime since her debut on June 19th. She was quite dull in her debut, but her three most recent works indicate to me that she’s ready to run and looks to be on the rise. Not sure we will see 8-1 when she leaves the gate, but should still offer some value.

Race #5: 5-1-3

#5 Prebill: After his maiden win at Fort Erie, the connections jumped him up a bit too much into an allowance in which he dropped back. After, they raced him in a 40k claimer where he finished third, beaten by seven and a quarter lengths after faltering. This level obviously fits him much better which is why he is your 8-5 morning line favorite.

#1 Rumbleinthejungle: After drawing clear in his maiden victory two weeks ago, Rumbleinthejungle finds himself in the highest level at Fort Erie. I’d expect him to be near or even on the front end here. Will use underneath in the exotics.

#3 Profield: He is definitely my price horse in this race. While he showed little last time out, two starts ago while making his turf debut he made up a bunch of ground to finish fifth, beaten by one and a quarter lengths. If Pinto and him can be a bit closer to the front runners, he may be able to close down the lane.

Race #6: 4-1-6

#4 Black Patch: For the 2016, Black Patch has been one of my favorite horses to watch. Any racing fan has to appreciate a war horse. This nine year old veteran is having quite the year: he’s won 3 races from seven starts. Same number of wins as his 2015 season, from essentially half of the starts. From his FE record (12 5-5-1) and his record at the distance (46 15-11-5), he’s a must play.

#1 Bathsheba Station: The connections must be hoping that he will return to form over the dirt, a surface in which he has successfully raced over in the past. In his last two years, he has only 1 win from 14 starts which is why I cannot use him on the top end. He’s obviously a horse for a course, with 4 seconds and a third from 5 attempts over the dirt here at Fort Erie so he looms a threat.

#6 Hombre Natural: This colt had a great 2015 season, securing three wins from six starts, but he has shown little in 2016. His effort on May 27th is the only notable start, in which he finished fourth after giving way. If you look back to his races at the Fair Grounds, he’s hard to ignore while returning to the dirt.

Race #7: 7-2-5

#7 Tale of Houdini: The horses owned by Charles Fipke could easily take down the exacta in this race. Tale of Houdini has impressed in his starts at Fort Erie this season. He returns to the turf in this race and with a great deal of pace in this race, I expect Pinto to see what the pace scenario is. I believe this horse can rate or be on the lead in this spot and would be shocked if he wasn’t in the exotics.

#2 Tale of Class: The other Fipke runner has shown up in most of his races since his long layoff. Most recently he closed late to finish sixth in a field of eight, but he only lost by a length and a half. If the pace is hot, he can rally from behind. Out of the two Fipke/Neubauer runners, he will be the one to offer the most value.

#5 Gretna Gracie: I’m going with a longshot here for the exotics, fresh off the maiden victory. This mare showed herself to be the class of the field in her most recently race after tracking behind the leaders. I think she has to do the same in here to loom any threat. At 15-1 ML, she’s worth a glance.

Race #8: 3-8-6

#3 Winstanley: If he likes the dirt as much as the turf, he seems like the one to beat. He’s been facing some of the best horses currently at Fort Erie, such as Handsome Cowboy who has climbed his way up from near the bottom to the top. There are no dirt works to note, but if we go back to the winter of 2015, he did race over an off track at GP in a 75k maiden, in which he finished fourth.

#8 Minnow Money: He drops one level after finishing third in both of his 2016 starts against slightly tougher. He is a great horse to play in the bottom of the exotics and he’s hard to ignore over the Fort Erie dirt. Some class relief should play in his favor.

#6 Crowns Dancer: His most recent races over the turf show why he deserves a look in this spot. He’s jumping up in class, but he’s been running well. His most recent race ended up being his second lifetime win. He closed from mid-pack, drawing off in the end after the second place finisher set the pace and faltered.

 

 

 

8-7-2016 Fort Erie Selections

Provided below are my selections for the 8 race card at Fort Erie. In my opinion, the most competitive race of the day is the seventh. Best of luck!

Race #1: 7-3-6

#7 World In Silence: This lightly raced 5 year old mare ran the best race of her life last time out going 5F over the turf. She closed a bit and was second best that day. I feel that she will handle the extra distance well and make her my top selection here.

#3 Lady Justice: Reade Baker ships her back here from WO for a second attempt over the turf course. She finished a respectable second against the same class. The third place finisher in that race came back to win.

#6 Bel Ayr Bay: This filly seems to hang around for some part of the exotics and if she can duplicate her effort on June 28th, she has a strong chance of being around near the finish line.

Race #2: 4-3-1

#4 Our Nat’s: Today this filly finds herself dropping back down to a similar class in which she previously has found success this year. The winner of her previous race, Chella was beyond tough to beat. On paper, Chella was the class of the field and the 8 and 3/4 length win margin shows that. Griffith returns to the saddle which could help this filly return back to the winner’s circle for her second time this season.

#3 Cash in a Shoebox: This Iowa bred mare is a bit of an unknown today. Her last two races against tougher at WO showed little but she finds herself back on the dirt, the surface that has given her only win in the past two years. Two things to note is a sizzling workout (but over the turf 5 days ago) as well as an equipment change (blinkers on). I’d expect Johnson to have her closer to the front than she has been in her previous starts.

#1 Seeking a Glitter: She makes her second start of the 2016 today and she’s hoping for a repeat victory. She won going gate to wire and I’d expect her to improve today. Not sure she will repeat today, but would expect her to be in the picture.

Race #3: 4-1-?

#4 R Boots Hall: I was a bit torn between this gelding and the #1 Diamond Hart for my top selection. R Boots Hall has moved to the barn of Layne Gilforte, who in the past was one of the best trainers at Fort Erie. In his last two races, he seems to have flattened out, but with the new pilot apprentice Aimee Auger, I think the weight break will help him in this spot.

#1 Diamond Hart: It’s been a tough journey on the road to breaking the maiden for this gelding. In his last two races, he’s opened up on the field, but has been caught both times. He finds himself shortening up here and if he can get an easy lead, he may never look back.

In this race I did not have a standout contender for the third spot. I gave a slight look to both the 2,3, and 9. All these horses have shown a start or two with promise, but recent starts are a bit of a concern.

Race #4: 3-6-2-7

#3 Corey’s Princess: A five year old mare by Niigon, Corey’s Princess has done little wrong this season, posting a 2-2-2 record from 8 starts. Her win on August 5th against a tougher group of claimers and her consistent form are enough to make her my top selection here.

#6 Texas Missy: Right behind my top selection is this runner from the Nick Gonzalez barn. Her only start over this surface was a winning one. Her last two starts were decent and I think she will run better on the turf against the lowest level of claimers at Fort Erie.

#2 Ring of Glory: She finds herself back on the turf and has one win this season over the surface against similar. She consistently fires to finish in the top 4 and I expect her to be in the top 4 today.

#7 Rhyme Nor Reason: I really have enjoyed watching this 3 year old filly by War Cry race this season at Fort Erie. She’s hit the board in 3 of her 4 turf stars here this season. I was on hand to watch her maiden win and was very impressed with her late rally. Her last race may look bad on paper, but do look at the lack of pace. With the half going up in 51, she had nothing to support her running style. I will continue to watch this filly, but find her as a worthy long shot today.

Race #5: 6-7-3

#6 Grandys Got Gold: I really like this gelding’s last two starts. Wide in both trips, he’s been able to break his maiden and catch the bottom of the trifecta. I expect him to be in the picture today, but the horse to his outside looms a serious threat.

#7 Rock My Soul: This runner from the red hot Julie Robillard barn ran a nice second on July 24th against similar. I see nothing that suggests him bouncing today, so he is a must play.

#3 Golden Pooka: He exits the same race as #7 Rock My Soul, where he finished third right behind #7. I can only see him sticking around for a piece of the exotics and he could be a price today. Will watch the tote.

Race #6: 3-6-1

This race is quite tough to piece together the pace scenario, as essentially all of the runners are barn burners. I personally see #3 and #6 gunning for the front and trying to hold on until the finish.

#3 Chief Chato: I’ve had this horse in my stable mail since 2014 and luckily, I’ve caught him at some bit prices. Today, he will offer little value at the windows. He’s made the trip down from Woodbine again, after finding success here in 2015. If he repeats that run, he should be good to go. I like his performance two starts backs against 30-32k claimers where he held for second.

#6 Aaronic Blessing: After failing to fire as the favorite last time out in the Bold Ruckus at Woodbine, the connections have decided to try him over the dirt. His dirt work on July 19th is very respectable and the fastest of 10. I tend to question horses who have never trained over the dirt here which is why I couldn’t make him my top selection. Other than his most recent race, what’s there not to like?

#1 Masquerade Party: I selected this runner as my longshot play for the exotics. He may get lucky and be able to close on a fast front end if he tracks the leaders. He ran nicely in a starter allowance against Gentlemen Jackson and while he faces tougher today, the exotics are possible for him.

Race #7: 8-9-2

Good luck here. This is one of the most wide open races so far in the 2016 season.

#8 Handsome Cowboy: I think bettors will be lucky to get the ML of 6-1 today. He’s testing the starter allowance waters today but his last three races are impressive. He’s raced against solid horses and hasn’t shown any signs of not sticking around. The third place finisher of his most recent race, Van Goghs Earlobe won in his most recent start even after jumping up drastically in class. There’s no reason Handsome Cowboy can’t do the same.

#9 English Holiday: This six year old mare by English Channel has shown a liking for the turf course, which comes at no surprise. She most recently won a 10k starter allowance against fillies and mares, but today she finds herself against the boys. I’m not too concerned with her facing the boys, as in her first start here this year she ran a respectable 5th, beaten by only 2 and a half. The first two place finishers from that race are in here today. She’s improved since that race which makes her a contender today.

#2 Celtic Conviction: This 8 year old runs his heart out in almost every race. He has a 2-2-1 record from 8 starts over the turf course here and has previously faced several of these runners. I’m a sucker for these hard chargers, but he tends to show up. I see him closing late and getting a piece.

Race #8: 9-10-8-1

#9 Only Way I Know: This gelding is a speedy one for this level and very well could get the lead and say goodbye to the rest of the field. He secures Sunny Singh in the irons, who has been have a solid season at Fort Erie. He’s raced against #10 Blisk in his most recent start and wasn’t too far behind.

#10 Blisk: His most recent start against this class resulted in a tough beat. He gave up the lead in the stretch, but managed to hang on for third. The horse to his inside will unlikely give him a chance to set soft fractions which is why I make him my second choice.

#8 Tallawah: It is quite difficult for a horse to score again after breaking their maiden which is why I will put him in the bottom of the exotics. His maiden victory shows that he can close from mid-pack and with the outside showing speed as well as #2 Easter Gold, he may have something to run at.

#1 Crown’s Dancer: He’s exiting from his best performance of the season and is known for sticking around for fourth, as seen from his 2015 season. He’d be a horse to use in the High 5 today.

7-31-16 Fort Erie Selections

This upcoming Sunday at Fort Erie Racetrack, there are 7 races scheduled. I have provided my selections for several of the races including the feature, an allowance going 7 furlongs over the turf.

Race #1: 2-5-6

#2 A Little Love Song: This five year old mare will be my top pick in this field. All of her starts over the border oval have been strong and she finds herself against easy competition, even though she is jumping up slightly in class. She gets a new rider so hopefully today is the day she finally makes her first trip to the winner’s circle.

#5 Peaceful Banking: This filly will be dropping to her lowest level in start number four. Two starts ago she showed some early foot and with blinkers on, her jock Melanie Pinto may send her to the front and try to win this one in gate to wire fashion.

#6 Sakari Tigress: Since is this field is so weak, I will use this three year old filly by Philanthropist who secures a bug for her first start. Her work tab is nothing to marvel at, but you never know what Sunday will bring.

 

Race #2: 5-6-1

#5 Ultimate Blue: My top selection here comes from the barn of Daryl Ezra. In his last start, Ultimate Blue was far back and ended up finishing 4th beaten by four against a bit tougher. Today he takes a slight drop, where he has shown he is a competitor.

#6 Tiger Hall: This gelding has one win over the surface for the year, in the lowest level of claimers at Fort Erie. He proved much the best, drawing away in the end. His last effort was a bit dull, but the extra furlong could work to his advantage here.

#1 Jobber Bill: Based on his last two starts, he figures to be a price in this spot. His two starts this year have been extremely disappointing, but I’m hoping he can turn things around in this race. Overall, his record over the dirt course from 9 starts includes a win and 6 second place finishes so he is what I call “a horse for the course.” Last year he was quite the force so maybe he can find himself worthy of part of the exotics.

Race #3: 6-7-8

#6 Diamond Hart: If he can replicate his last effort, I think Diamond Hart can break his maiden Sunday. On July 17th, he stretched out to be caught down the stretch. Auger sticks with him and I don’t see much competition for him except the horse to his outside.

#7 Metier: This runner from the Nick Gonzalez barn failed to fire in his last start following a second place finish over the turf. He will try the dirt for the first time in this race, but his pedigree suggests that the surface won’t be an issue.

#8 Little Lord Avie: A lightly raced 5 year old gelding by War Cry, Little Lord Avie put in a nice effort on June 28th, where he finished 3rd between by just under 2 lengths. In his most recent start, he lacked a kick and lost ground. Not sure this is soft enough for him to break his maiden, but he can catch part of the trifecta.

Race #4: 6-2-3

#6 Beaver Trapper: Justin Nixon sends out Beaver Trapper to test his toes over the turf for his first time. Most recently, he showed little in the G3 Marine at WO. Prior to that race, he broke his maiden gate to wire down at Tampa Bay in a maiden special weight.While he hasn’t race in 6 weeks, his works over the turf course are good enough for me to think that he will fire.

#2 Mind Magic: This winter he broke his maiden decisively at GP. In that start, he was claimed and found himself in the barn of Tino Attard. He has been racing in claiming company up at WO, but hasn’t hit the board. He fits this race nicely and is facing some easier competition than in his recent starts. The connections ship him into FE to see if they can pick up a check.

#3 Profield: I’m going to try to land a price here with Profield. Most recently, he found himself against this level where he closed from last to finish fifth, between by one and one quarter lengths. Since that was his first try over the course and over turf in general, I think he could improve off his second attempt, especially if he can find himself a bit closer to the front runners.

Race #7: To be posted tomorrow.

 

2016 Prince of Wales

Provided below are my preliminary picks for all nine races tomorrow at Fort Erie. The feature is the 2016 edition of the Prince of Wales which drew a compact, yet competitive field of 8 runners. The other stakes race on the card is the Rainbow Connection, which is one of four races scheduled to be run over the turf course. Happy handicapping and good luck at the windows!

Race 1: 4-5-6-1

#4 Quality Assurance: This five year old mare seems to be improving with each race. Her most recent race going 5 furlongs on the turf showed a different side of her as a runner, as she closed from off the pace. This will be her first race for trainer Julie Robillard (30 7 4 7 .23), who also sends out #2 First Parade. While this mare has not raced on the dirt, her dirt works are good enough for me.

#5 Princess Salimah: This daughter of Majestic Warrior certainly ran her heart out last start going 7 furlongs on the turf. I was on hand to watch her most recent race and was not certain she’d be able to run well, given her small stature. She essentially lead throughout, but was nipped in the final strides from a horse coming from off the pace. It will be interesting to see how she takes to the dirt but in all of her starts, she has ran well.

#6 Diddums: This filly exits from the same race as #4 Quality Assurance. She ran a solid third at quite the price, but had no reason for going off at such ridiculous odds. Diddums raced this winter down at Tampa Bay Downs, facing tougher and her effort January 27th makes me believe that she may handle the Fort Erie dirt.

#1 Bottoms Up: It is hard to ignore this runner from the Ashlee Brnjas barn, as she last raced against much tougher company at Woodbine. While her efforts have been dull, she drops to the lowest level and has a speedy workout over the training track at WO.

Race 2: 1-4-2

#1 Tevez: It’s no secret that I love this warhorse. This ten year old gelding is a perfect two for two at Fort Erie and most recently was spotted in the winner’will circle here June 28th. He is never in a rush at the start, but is a hard charger in the stretch. There is certainly enough pace in the race for him, so look for him to be flying down the lane.

#4 Carters Gap: Quite the interesting entry, as this horse ships in from Mountaineer and so does a stablemate and his jockey. This horse has shown to fancy the turf. In his last two starts in September of 2015, he won going 5 furlongs and at a mile both on the front end. My biggest concern is this gelding may need a race or two, after a long hiatus.

#2 Spin Wild: His most recent races have not shown much, but by cutting down to 5 furlongs, I think Spin Wild may be able to catch a sliver of the exotics. While both #1 Tevez and #3 Bear’s Romeo have defeated him, I believe his best races are in front of him and he should offer some value at the windows.

Race 3: 6-4-3

#6 Escape Shaft: If he can take his most recent start over the Fort Erie  turf and transfer it to the dirt, he will be tough to beat in this spot.  His figure in that race is superior to the rest of the field.

#4 Blonde Gator: His most recent race resulted in a last place finished against 10k claimers. In June, he broke his maiden at FE after battling with the runner up.  The connections send him back here in hopes of bouncing back. Morning line is 10-1, but I don’t believe we will get this price.

#3 Thunder Bold: In his only race this year, Thunder Bold failed to fire over the turf course where he faced #6 Escape Shaft. He has had two second place finishes over this course in the past so we could expect improvement returning to the dirt in his second start of the year.

Race 4: The Rainbow Connection Stakes 2-4

#2 Tahnee: Last year’s winner makes her second start of the year, after a fifth place finish in the Satin and Lace Stakes (PID). Her win last year in this race was extremely impressive, as she broke the track record by running a sizzling 56 flat. After her win, her connections shipped her to Saratoga where she finished fourth against quality horses including Lady Shipman,  the e 2015 Breeder’s Cup Turf Sprint runner up. Her works suggests she’s ready for the repeat victory

#4 Classyshadesofgrey: She has done nothing wrong in 2016, winning both of her starts. She fired a bullet in her most recent morning drill and seems to be able to keep up with #2 Tahnee. Would expect her to be in the picture.

Race 5: 5-3-7

#5 Saffiano: This horse finds himself facing 5k claimers again, after stepping up in his previous start to 7k. He finished second in that start and now he’s shortening up a bit in only his third start of the season. I believe he needed his first start and should run well in this spot.

#3 Shanty Bay: I’m going to give this gelding one more shot to turn it around. In his most recent start, he faced #5 Saffiano and finished 6th, beaten by over 9 lengths. If we go back to his second start of the year against alw. 5k, he closed hard to just miss by a head. His most recent start is a concern, but he seems to take to the dirt course well so will use in hopes of a turnaround.(12 starts – 3 4 2).

#7 Phil’s Thunder: This runner from the Claudia Rabstein barn is making his fourth start at Fort Erie for the year and is still in search of a win. In all of his starts here this year, he has finished second and doesn’t seem to have enough to get up for the win. He fits well, but will endorse others for the win.

Race 6: 1-2-3

#1 Ultimate Destiny: This horse finds himself as the ML 7-5 favorite off the big drop into this spot. We have to go back to 2015 to find a win, but the drop into the top allowance at Fort Erie may be what he needs to find himself in the winner’s circle.

#2 Uncorked Spirit: His two most recent starts suggest that he fits this race well. He has only missed the board once this season and the added distance shouldn’t hinder him from running well. While no turf races or works are to be found, he has shown he runs well on the synthetic up at Woodbine.

#3 English Holiday: While she may be facing the boys, her two recent starts over the FE turf suggest she can handle it as well as a step up in class. Seems that she can hit the board in this spot.

Race 7: 3-1-6

#3 Madcap Duchess: This mare is one of my favorite runners this season. Most recently, she took a step up in class and never looked back. Even though she is facing tougher here, staying undefeated for the year is not out of her reach.

#1 Probably: Her most recent race showed that she was ready to step up in class. In front running fashion, she took the lead from the gate and pulled away in the stretch.  Like her name suggests, she will probably be in the money.

#6 Chella: Chella is another runner from the Elliot Sullivan barn who shipping in from Mountaineer. If this horse can duplicate performances from 2015 in her first start off the shelf, #3 Madcap Duchess will find herself in a showdown with this speedy runner. This horse would be a top pick, but will go elsewhere due to layoff concerns.

Race 8: The Prince of Wales Stakes 

#1 Leavem in Malibu: After exiting the Queen’s Plate after a decent sixth place finish, this full brother to Danzig Moon put down a blazing workout July 17th. The fastest of 15 he breezed five furlongs over the training track in 57 and 4/5ths, which signals he is all systems go entering this race.

#2 All on Red: After breaking his maiden at AQU, he transferred to the barn of Sid Attard and has ran two nice races. I have a feeling we haven’t seen his best yet and with blinkers on, he should be a bit closer to the pace than in the Queen’s Plate which should serve to his advantage.

#3 Narrow Escape: This colt finds himself in a familiar situation to his big half brother Coltimus Prime, winner of the 2014 Prince of Wales. After not firing in the Queen’s Plate, he finds himself trying out the dirt. He was shipped in last Tuesday to breeze and logged respectable 48 and 4/5ths.  Justin Nixon has made an equipment change, adding blinkers and he keeps Ryan in the saddle.

#4 Amis Gizmo: This offspring of Giant Gizmo seems to fire every start. He finished second in the Queen’s Plate as the favorite. He has shown that he has a versatile running style and with that, I’d expect Luis Contreras to see what the break brings.

#5 Leo From Heaven: This Mark Frostad runner will be facing stakes company for the first time this Tuesday. His most recent race was at Woodbine going one mile against allowance company where he faded to third. He stretches out to the longest race of his career and with his last two performances against weaker , he may be in a bit too deep.

#6 Battery: Todd Pletcher has decided to ship Battery to Fort Erie in attempt to win the Prince of Wales again. While he hasn’t shown anything in his last two races which both resulted in last place finishes, he shows some back class. This winter, he finished second to Cherry Wine down at Gulfstream Park going a mile and a sixteenth. Steady worktab.

#7 Niigon’s Edge: He broke his maiden in August of 2015 up at Woodbine and then tried stakes company in his last two starts of 2015. In my opinion, his most impressive race was at GP in February. He closed to finish third going a mile and sixteenth, which makes me think that the extra eighth of a mile can only help.

#8 Sir Dudley Digges: This horse has shown up in essentially each of starts. After finishing third in the Plate Trial, his connections raced him in the Queen’s Plate and the extra distance was what he needed. He has shown a drastic improvement start after start and with his previous dirt starts, it seems that he can continue to move up in this race.

This edition of the Prince of Wales is one of the most wide open in recent years. The top three finishers in the Queen’s Plate seem to offer little value, so I will try to land more of a price horse in the exotics.  My top picks are #4 Amis Gizmo and #8 Sir Dudley Digs. While I do like #2 All On Red, I see him preferring the third leg of the Canadian Triple Crown.

For a price play, I will use #7 Niigon’s Edge. While I’m not too keen on how he performed in stakes races as a two year old, I do like his two most recent starts.

Race 9: 6-4-3-1

#6 Simplyirrestistible: This four year old filly ships in from Woodbine to test out the Fort Erie turf course. Her most recent race off the drop suggests she fits well in this group. To find respectable turf races, one must go back to 2015 where she was winning allowance races up at Woodbine. Hard to pass on.

#4 Hibiscus Trail: After winning a 5k claimer at the distance, her connections moved her up, but she faced tough competition. The winner of that race, English Holiday is in R6 as the 5-2 ML second choice. I would expect a better effort than her most recent outing and will use.

#3 Mystic Delight: Another Woodbine shipper, Mystic Delight has had a decent 2016 season, hitting the board 3 times out of her 5 attempts. Her two recent efforts have been her dullest of the season, but if she can turn things around she should catch a piece.

#1 Ring of Glory: This filly is my longshot play in this race. While she is jumping up, I was on hand for her last start and was very impressed. She tracked and closed nicely to get the win over this course. With the Woodbine shippers in this race and the fact that I do not believe she will have enough to run at, I will use her in the bottom of the exotics.